Potential Market Size Estimation and Projection for the Developing Ethiopian Capital Market

The report estimates Ethiopia’s emerging capital‑market capacity by projecting key macro‑variables (GDP, national and financial savings, tax revenue, and debt demand) under three scenarios—baseline, reform‑driven (HGER 2.0), and adverse—and finds that, if reforms succeed, total financial savings could reach about 1.5 trillion ETB and government bond issuance about 745 billion ETB by 2028, providing a sizable domestic funding base for debt and equity markets.